So, the Crimean “referendum” has started. Russia has occupied a part of Ukraine, Russian provocations take place all over southern and eastern Ukraine every day. Russian troops in full readiness stay along the borders of the largest European country even from the side of Belorus. They are ready to attack. Neither EU, nor the USA have done anything except “sanctions” to prevent this.
In 1990ies Ukraine had given away all of its nukes in exchange for borders’ integrity guarantees from USA, UK, and Russia. After collapse of USSR Ukraine had the third largest nuclear arsenal after USA and Russia. Many called this act of peaceful giving away those devastating weapons a political suicide, but the nation wanted to live in peace after horrors of Soviet regime.
Our nuclear arsenal was big enough to keep all the planet in terror, and to make good money from selling its parts to all kinds of terrorist regimes. Ukrainian people had chosen a different way and the strongest world powers did guarantee us peace.
The West, as during our revolution against Yanukovych, is still “deeply concerned”. More and more people in Ukraine think – all those “guarantees” are worth nothing. West is not protecting us. No matter how this conflict is resolved (looks like without US help Ukraine is to lose at least Crimea, or couple more regions, or even all the Left-bank Ukraine in worst scenario), we ought to get the nukes back for protection from Kremlin.
We do not want the mass destruction weapons back. But it looks like we desperately need them.
No – if international guarantees don’t work, we need something real to protect ourselves against a crazy Northern maniac. Not only we need it – Poland, Baltic states, and some other countries do need nukes as well. In Ukraine, we have had nukes, we know very well how to make them, so why do we not have a right to build them to protect ourselves, if those, who have promised to do it are hiding their heads in the sand?
More and more Russian tanks are being brought to Crimea. Tanks are of not much use in Crimean mountains. They are either for powerful defenses, but with much greater possibility – for powerful land attack on Ukrainian mainland. Russian strike helicopters and long-range missiles have also appeared in Crimea. They’ve been brought there not for “defense from fascists” either.
Giving nukes away has come out to be a historical mistake for Ukraine. We have believed in peace and high ethics of Anglo-Saxon civilization but witness a dual standard 1936-like ethics instead. In nineties the powers cared just for the threat that came from Ukraine’s nuclear arsenal and looked like ready to promise everything for our giving them away. Now the time has come to fulfill the promises. In ancient times of kings, nobles, and blood-oaths EU’s nowadays position would have been classified as “oath breakers”.
What Putin wants
EU wants to give Putin what he wants, and hope he will not go further. This is a mistake: Putin’s logic goes beyond European geopolitics thinking.
What Putin does can be understood only from the point of view proposed by a great Russian mystic D.Andreev, a victim of Stalinist machine who new logic and “infralogic” of Russian politics and power very well.
Putin is ruled by a totalitarian state’s “demon” – the logic, ideology, psychology, and neccessity of a totalitarian state zombifying machine.
As a skillful liar and poker player Putin is going to break and discredit the modern system of guarantees and treaties with impudent brute force. And he’s sure that nobody in diplomacy-used world is ready to confront him. Putin in his own way wants to break the world order as it is.
This logic does work. I have shown already, that Europe is very close to have a mass land-war at it’s border: after the heroism of Maidan
Ukraine will fight invaders and fight fiercely, but it looks like nobody is going to help us militarly.
It is the question of real democracy now – Ukraine has fought for real democracy with hundred people killed. Now Europe shows that it’s high democracy is blah-blah on the paper and Putin can eat the young democrats for his dinner in exchange for gas, oil, and trade.
There are countries who’ll think — the treaties do not work – the West is afraid not only to use nukes as was promised to Ukraine according to Budapest system of security, the West is simply afraid to fight Russia even with conventional weapons.
It’s easy to understand concerns of other East Europe’s states now — if Budapest treaty promising guarantees to Ukraine in exchange for lots of nukes doesn’t work, are there any real guarantee that, for example, NATO treaty will work?
If Putin decides to bite of a part of Poland or Baltic states in two or three years, will the EU and US protect them? What are the real reasons for them to do so, if they had let Putin eat Ukraine? In this situation any words about nuclear disarmament will sound just like a bad joke.
Putin is going not only for territorial change of a major European country. If he is not stopped at this point we’ll soon have a completely different world, a world quickly and desperately creating new mass destruction weapons, world that would laugh on the “sanctions” and USA’s and EU’s calls to stop nuclear weapons spread. This world is exactly what mr. Putin does want.
Will the world let him do it?
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